The Houthi Advance, Saudi Strategy & the Mecca Defence Pact

Summary

On 8 September 2026, the Houthis launched a large-scale missile and drone campaign targeting civilian and economic infrastructure in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran in southern Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities reported 73 civilian injuries, including among women and children. The Houthis said the KSA had carried out more than 300 air strikes against them over the previous three days. This constituted a direct attack on the Kingdom by an Iranian-backed militia. Maj Gen Al-Maliki said the Saudi-led Joint Forces Command of the Coalition which has been fighting the rebels during the civil war in Yemen,

“will take all necessary operational measures to deter the terrorist Houthi militia with utmost resolve”.

On 10^th Sep, the Houthis captured the Red Sea port city of Makhah (Al-Makha) after a rapid advance on the country’s western coast. They have taken control of the city after days of fierce fighting and the withdrawal of pro-government forces. Before understanding the Houthi takeover of Makhah and its potential regional impact, it is important to look at how they advanced so quickly up the west coast. According to Ahmed Naji, a Yemen and Middle East expert at the International Crisis Group,

“the Houthi offensive was not a sudden move, but rather a long-term development. The Houthi military capabilities, especially drones and other weapons, have also increased significantly in recent years.” He further said, “to understand the pace of this advance, one must look at the Houthis’ superior military capabilities as well as the weaknesses of the Saudi-backed forces opposing them.”

A map of the Houthis’ battlefield advance helps illustrate the speed of their progress. Before advancing on Makha, the Houthis seized Hays and Al-Khokha. As Hays connects southern Hodeidah to the main routes towards Makha and Bab al-Mandab, its capture opened the way for a further advance down the coast. Houthi forces then reached Makha, compelling pro-government troops to withdraw. After taking the city, they advanced towards the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, moving closer to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Iran has sought to prolong a war of attrition by widening the battlefield and deploying its assets gradually as the confrontation evolves. For a time, the Houthis appeared to view Iran’s strategy, striking Israel, U.S. assets and Gulf oil and gas facilities, while blocking the Strait of Hormuz as sufficient. Their media portrayed Iran as capable of winning, giving them little reason to join the fight while Tehran held the advantage. However, the Houthis consistently said they might intervene without an explicit request from Tehran if Iran’s position deteriorated significantly. 

Meanwhile, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) reportedly called U.S. President Trump twice this week and asked to intervene and halt Houthi attacks on Saudi territory. Media reports say Trump declined, stating that it was not the right time for large-scale strikes against the Houthis, reportedly because of the U.S. midterm elections. However, the United States continues to provide intelligence, and 200 U.S. military personnel are stationed in the Kingdom to offer non-kinetic support. Although President Trump has said that “the war will end after the November mid-term elections, there is no way that the market can believe this claim, as the situation remains perilous.” His claim may imply that the U.S. could intervene and launch a final military campaign to end the war.

Contents:

1. Houthi Military Strength
2. Houthi Anthropic AI Bot
3. Houthi Influential Tactics
4. Houthi Current Advance
5. Why Did the Advance Happen Now?
6. The Reality of Mecca Defence Agreement
7. Saudia’s Weak Strategy 
8. Saudi’s Western Allies
9. Saudi’s Last Regional Hope